Huhuonline.com can now authoritatively report that a fierce power struggle has erupted at the heart of Nigeria’s oil industry, pitting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu against Bashir Bayo Ojulari, the new Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPC), according to multiple sources with knowledge of the ongoing rupture, that may have far-reaching political implications into the 2027 presidential elections. The deepening rift between the President and the man he personally appointed to steer the country’s oil giant has morphed into a full blown political fault line; one that threatens Tinubu’s standing in the north ahead of the critical 2027 elections.
At the center of the firestorm: control of profit shares and exploration spending at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd). NNPC sources told Huhuonline.com that Tinubu is moving aggressively to tighten his grip on NNPC’s finances. The source, who elected anonymity disclosed to Huhuonline.com that the president plans to raise the portion of NNPC profits remitted to the federation account from its current 40% to over 80 %, sharply reducing the share NNPC retains for its own running costs and exploration budgets. “Tinubu has already ordered a review of the NNPC’s revenue deduction and retention practices, flagging the company’s 30 % management fee and 30 % frontier exploration deduction under the Petroleum Industry Act,” noted the source.
That move comes at precisely the moment when Ojulari is supposed to deliver on his reform mandate. It is widely regarded as a rebuke of NNPC’s financial autonomy and the corporate latitude the company has enjoyed – a step that pits the presidency directly against its own appointee. For northern states, the implications are immediate: much of NNPC’s exploration spend and contract awards flow into the North. Cutting the retained fund means less money potentially trickling into those states. And this is happening at a time when the president’s political support in the North is already fragile. Ojulari, a respected technocrat and northerner, has openly resisted the plan, telling the President without equivocation that the plan would cripple exploration projects in the Chad Basin, Gongola Basin, and other northern frontier areas. These projects, though costly and often unproductive, carry deep political symbolism in the north, where Tinubu’s support is under strain.
One NNPC source who elected anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the issue told Huhuonline.com that relations between Tinubu and Ojulari have apparently hit “rock bottom,” with the president confiding to close aides that he very much regrets his decision to appoint Ojulari as NNPC chief executive officer. The source recalled a terse phone call between the two men that degenerated into a “near shouting match” with Tinubu calling Ojulari an “ingrate” and reminding him that as president, he is the substantive Petroleum Resources Minister, with the authority to fire him.
A Clash with Political Consequences
The schism has quickly spilled beyond the boardroom. Northern governors and legislators from the ruling APC party are rallying behind Ojulari, accusing Tinubu of “abandoning the north” by cutting off vital exploration funds. Some northern opposition figures have seized on the dispute, framing it as proof that Tinubu is Lagos centric and indifferent to northern development. Analysts warn that the fallout could reshape the 2027 presidential race, where Tinubu will need strong northern backing to secure a second term.
Exploration contracts, local spending and job creation tied to NNPC in the northern region have been a key lever of federal state patronage. If those funds dry up or shift focus, northern elites and voters may feel left out. With 2027 on the horizon, the North remains a strategic bloc – any erosion of support there looms large. A perception that the federal government is redirecting funds away from northern states could amplify regional grievances. By challenging NNPC’s autonomy, despite having placed Mr. Ojulari in charge, Tinubu sends a clear message: reform ahead of regional patronage. But the cost may be a backlash if the reform isn’t accompanied by visible benefit to affected regions.
Three Possible 2027 Scenarios
1. Tinubu Doubles Down and Survives Tinubu forces through the reforms, even if it means sacking Ojulari. He gambles that redirecting oil profits to the federal purse will allow him to fund nationwide infrastructure and social programs, including in the north. If he can deliver tangible benefits, he may blunt elite anger and retain enough northern votes to remain competitive.
2. Tinubu Compromises with Northern Elites Facing mounting pressure, Tinubu softens his stance, allowing NNPC to retain more funds for frontier exploration. This would preserve his fragile coalition with northern power brokers, but at the cost of weakening his reformist credentials and leaving fiscal pressures unresolved.
3. Opposition Capitalizes on Northern Discontent If Tinubu is seen as cutting off the north’s oil dreams, opposition parties could unite behind a northern candidate, portraying him as hostile to northern interests. This could replicate the 2015 dynamic that unseated Goodluck Jonathan, with Tinubu struggling to secure 25% in key northern states, potentially dooming his re election.
The Bottom Line
What began as a technical dispute over oil profits has escalated into a political showdown with existential stakes. Tinubu’s determination to rein in the NNPC may strengthen his image as a reformer, but it risks alienating the very northern constituencies that helped deliver his 2023 victory. With the 2027 elections looming, the battle between Tinubu and Ojulari is no longer just about oil revenues; it is about the survival of Tinubu’s presidency.